Advanced betting probability

Probability in terms of mathematics complex area that requires great knowledge of the various formulas that are “normal” people too demanding. Punters fortunately do not need to know the probability to such a depth. The content of this lesson is thus straightforward and contains only the essential elements.

You will not miss any important information. You will learn everything you need while you will not dig into the head no uselessness. High performance computing can leave mathematicians for bettors would be entirely unnecessary J.

In the second level of our Schools betting you rather uniquely familiar with the role of probabilities in sports betting. The purpose of this lesson was to familiarize you with the basic principles on which this lesson fluently to continue.

What do you betting odds actually say?

A large amount of useful information can also be found in articles Probability in betting and Converting probability courses.

Each betting odds is actually an indicator of the probability of the scenario. If there is a good chance that team A wins, then this team will get a low rate. If the team and outsiders, course it will, on the contrary quite high. You should follow the basic types of bets and avoid various “exotic” offers bookmakers. Simply because there is no truer indicator of the probability of winning individual players (or teams).

How courses are counted?
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Well, we already know that the probability determines the courses, but I still do not know how to create courses. The fact is that the bookmakers will collect maximum available information and statistical data, which subsequently evaluated. Often, but also add their own intuition.

If sázkovka lists the courses he needed two weeks before the match, you can not expect them to be as high as on the day of the match. Size rate will jump up and down according to the latest information. If, for example, a key player on the team three days before the match breaks his leg, odds are definitely the team to grow.

Mathematics designing courses in this lesson we will not really deal with. It is very complex and the vast majority of readers of this article would not be in any way useful. Until it becomes a real professional punters try to make everything as simple as possible.

We read with probability courses in mind

Now you should be able to “decipher” what they say courses. If the match a big favorite, rate it will be low. If your team has little chance of winning rate will be high on the contrary. Let’s look at examples of courses and translate them into “the language of probability.”

Example:

The easiest way to explain it is likely to look at the match in which both teams have the same chance of winning, so bookmakers on both offer rate of 2.00. This means that one and the probability of winning the second team 50%. No team has the upper hand, it is practically a coin toss.

Probability of course very easy to calculate. 100 divided by a given course. In this way, we obtain the probability of a given team or player to win a match.

Pre-match odds vs. live courses

Now that I well understand why betting on favorites produces very good results, we move on to the next step. You have to decide on whether you place a bet before the game, so you get a pre-match rate, or whether you will try to find a better value and higher courses during the course of the match and therefore you bet with live odds.

From the previous lesson, however, you must remember that you should not bet on every single favorite just because ‘favorite is still the best chance of winning. “Every day you have dozens of interesting betting opportunities, so you need to choose carefully. Carry out the selection on the basis of pre-match analysis, found the information and statistical data.

How to choose a match of sports offerings can be found here

Once you go through this process (and you will be satisfied with your choice), stands in front of you another challenge. On this call, there is a universal answer. It’s about whether to bet before the start of each game or up and running.

If this dilemma existed a universal solution, sports betting would be too easy … it would be the Holy Grail of such sports betting.

First let’s look at each of these two options and examine the pros and cons.

a) Pre-match odds

Pre-Match courses are courses that you see on websites bookmakers before the match starts. This is the most common “form” of course, since a large percentage of live betting handicappers not a fan.

It is therefore the courses, which will be considered majority stakes bettors. If you are interested in a betting opportunity even after thorough analysis, we look at what rate they offer sázkovky. If they will be offered a course like this, you bet.

Pre-Match courses themselves are a valuable source of information. Just a glimpse of the courses will tell you how teams (or players) standing in the eyes of bookmakers. The lower rate on the favorite, the clearer the game should be. Higher rates (for both teams) indicate that the game will be close.

Advantages of pre-match betting odds:

• You know predetermined courses.
• See 100% a bet.
• After placing bets no longer have to perform analysis and so on.

Disadvantages pre-match betting odds:

• The course may not be as high as you think should be.
• You can not get more value by betting during the match.
• You are not able to maximize their betting potential.
• As you can see, the pre-match odds have both advantages and disadvantages. It depends on whether you think it is possible to obtain greater value through betting during the match.

b) Live Odds

If you decide to bet live, you bet before, but after the start of the match. Your goal is simple – to get a higher rate and better value.

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Live betting is becoming increasingly popular. This is particularly so because of online betting companies, as well as technological progress. Internet and computer today has virtually everyone, so logically increased the number of people interested in betting during the match. The most important matches are broadcast on television, but virtually all the matches are streamed on the internet, so punters do not have enough information about the emergency.

Until recently, most bettors live betting ignored, however, during the past two years, people began to realize that sometimes goes there to get a good value.

In addition to the classical betting bookmakers, there are also so-called. Betting exchange, where users bet against one another. Typical examples of the betting exchange Betfair, which incidentally offers a bet of € 20 for free. In addition to the betting exchange Betfair course offers classic betting. Betting on betting exchanges is quite complicated, so we adhere to the theme. Live betting is useful if you are not satisfied with the offered pre-match odds.